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Macroeconomics

A NEW PAGE IN THE TRADE WAR IS BEING WRITTEN

20 May 2019

The good news is we didn’t get another tweet from PresidentTrump over the weekend, possibly impacting markets.

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TECH FOOD

03 May 2019

According to AgFunder, an online AgriFood platform, global investment in food technology more than tripled between 2012 and 2017.

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Break-down of the US GDP data

30 April 2019

Expectations for last Friday’s Q1 GDP figure were for 2.3% growth. Turn the figures around and 3.2% is what the markets in fact got. Is this goodbye to seasonally weak structural Q1 GDP growth?

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THE US AND THE OIL MARKET

26 April 2019

The US just threw another big stone in the ‘oil pond’ and it’s about to create serious ripples across the globe. Instead of prolonging the waivers for imports of Iranian oil, the US has decided to let them expire on 2 May. That would mean that countries like India, China, Turkey, Greece and Italy would all face sanctions if, beyond that date, they continued to buy Iranian oil. Sanctions entail blocking US-based assets or blocking money transfers through US banks when paying in dollars. In brief, it sends a message of ‘do business with them and lose business with us.’

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END OF THE ROAD FOR CREDIT

09 April 2019

Equity markets have rebounded resoundingly from the lows seen last December. So have credit markets. Trackers for US high-yield bonds have completely wiped out the loss seen in the fourth quarter of 2018. The outperformance versus government bonds is massive. That is because the spreads have been coming down. From around 540bps at the start of the year, US high-yield spreads have fallen close to 370bps today. In Europe, the iTraxx X-Over 10-year index which follows the CDS for sub-investment grade corporates, has seen its spread fall from 430bps to around 300bps today. By the way, that level is very close once again to the five-year lows seen before.

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